Founder medium term: production reduction logic supports steel price and pays attention to seasonal change range of demand
Abstract: under the condition that the demand and the speed of removing the stock are not obviously faster than expected, the futures market will increase sharply, and the trading supply will decrease. Therefore, before the implementation of domestic production reduction policy, it is difficult to estimate the balance sheet of steel supply and demand in this year, so that the policy expectation is more reflected in the form of profit. In addition, strong overseas prices are another driving force of the current market. In April, the initial value of PMI of manufacturing industry in the United States and Europe both reached record highs, indicating the continuation of economic recovery. According to the statistics of the World Steel Association, crude steel output of all regions except North America increased year on year in the first quarter, indicating strong demand. The essence is that economic recovery and loose monetary policy did not exit after the epidemic. On the whole, the premise of the complete end of the upward trend of this round is that first, overseas demand and prices fall, and attention can be paid to the time when the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy turns, and second, the growth rate of domestic demand drops sharply. Before the above two factors appear, OK